( ESNUG 596 Item 6 ) ----------------------------------------------------- [04/12/2024]
Subject: Shankar is now seriously gunning for Tom Beckley's Virtuoso empire
THE GAME HAS CHANGED: Back in 2016 when SNPS first launched Custom Compiler, it
was seen as "check box" tool. That is, at the time Aart was again in one of his
"you-gotta-buy-all-your-EDA-tools-from-one-vendor-because-you-REALLY-don't-want-
a-Frankenstein-flow-do-you?-and-it-should-be-an-all-SNPS-flow" pushes
"Companies already want to deal with fewer vendors. One reason is economic.
The other is technical. The Frankenstein flows will become less and less
productive over time. Our industry is following the same trend as the
IS industry and companies like SAP and Oracle. Customers want a complete
solution."
- Aart de Geus, CEO of Synopsys (SNPS Earnings call for 2Q 2005)
The problem was that pesky Tom Beckley over in Cadence had personally spent over
20 years building up the Virtuoso custom design empire to the point where it
dominated all things in analog/custom/AMS design.
See that CDNS 68% vs. that SNPS 6% above in the 2013 numbers? That was embarrassing
for Aart because it meant that SNPS had diddly-squat in custom design -- making his
"SNPS-is-your-one-stop-shop-for-all-your-EDA-tool-needs" claim a lie.
So, like any good leader, Aart set out to make a serious rival to Virtuoso and
at DAC'16 he launched his new Custom Compiler to ride the new FinFET craze that
was sweeping the chip design world back then...
"This tool is definitely needed by designers, and is motivated by the increasing
use of FinFET devices. Here at Synopsys we have 1,300 engineers in our IP team,
with lots of these people turning to FinFETs in their design."
"The people who are coming to Austin in June for DAC will definitely have
FinFETs on their mind -- and Custom Compiler!"
- Dave Reed, SNPS Marketing (EDA Cafe 04/07/2016)
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(2016 ... the rest of the year passes and not much changes in custom design ...)
(2017 ... another year passes and not much changes in custom design ...)
(2018 ... another year passes and not much changes in custom design ...)
(2019 ... another year passes and not much changes in custom design ...)
(2020 ... another year passes and not much changes in custom design ...)
(2021 ... another year passes and not much changes in custom design ...)
(2022 ... another year passes and not much changes in custom design ...)
(2023 ... another year passes and not much changes in custom design ...)
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A NEW GUY, A NEW WAR, A NEW STRATEGY: It's 2024 and I'm at SNUG'24. After the usual
musical chairs that big companies go through as they age, a new guy -- Shankar
Krishnamoorthy -- who is actually an old SNPS Design Compiler guy, and the old Sierra
CEO, and then a Mentor VP guy from decades ago -- rejoins SNPS in 2017 where he very
quickly moves up to become crowned the new Bigwig in Charge of All SNPS EDA.
And, as the new SNPS Bigwig of All EDA, instead of following the same olde failing
strategy of Custom-Compiler-shall-replace-Virtuoso-everywhere, Shankar stopped and
rethought out his CC strategy.
At SNUG'24, I secretly snuck in a Vulcan buddy of mine to mind meld with Shankar to
read his thoughts. Here's what he found floating in Shankar's mind...
"We're failing miserably trying to beat Beckley's Virtuoso."
"Beckley's Virtuoso still owns 95% marketshare in the Big Boy accounts."
"Even after 8 years, we're only getting small insignificant nothing
companies publically endorsing my Custom Compiler."
"Beckley now has his new Virtuoso Studio going after the big $$$ accounts
to solve their 10nm-7nm-5nm-3nm-2nm-1nm analog migration problems."
"Crap! 8 of the Top 20 Big $$$, Big Boy logos are actually using Virtuoso Studio
to do their 10nm-7nm-5nm-3nm-2nm-1nm analog migrations! DAMN IT !!!"
"THEREFORE, instead trying to take over the entire Russian Empire, let's try to
take over Moscow instead -- because that's where the big $$$$ is!
"That is, instead of having my Custom Compiler trying to take over the
entire Virtuoso empire, let's try to take over the 10nm-7nm-5nm-3nm-2nm-1nm
analog migration niche instead -- because that's where the big $$$$ is!"
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NO LONGER A CHECK BOX ITEM: So when Shankar put up an analog migration slide up
at the SNPS Investor Day, my brain immediately saw this as his real slide:
Not only was Custom Compiler no longer a check box tool, Shankar was bringing it
up front and center to investors -- meaning he's 100% serious about taking
on Beckley's Virtuoso Studio -- plus Shankar's even adding AI to CC now!!!!
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HOW COOLEY KNOWS SHANKAR IS SERIOUS: I did a bunch of snooping behind the scenes and
here's my Cooley snapshot of the 2024-Custom-Design-but-not-SPICE market:
The big takeaway on this is Shankar has 3 RnD guys for every $1 M in revenue
working on his Custom Compiler tool ("with ASO.ai, of course!"); while Beckley
has 0.9 RnD guys per $1 M in revenue for Virtuoso ("plus Studio, of course!").
That is, Shankar has tripled down on CC/ASO.ai to catch up with Beckley!
That's how I know Shankar is serious about this.
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ADDITIONAL ANALOG MIGRATION SIDE NOTES:
Tanner Tools (or they're now Siemens Tanner) are low-touch-Windows-based
download-it-and-pay-with-a-credit-card cheap seats used to design old node
(180nm, etc.) polygon type of designs for MEMs, photonics, power ICs, and
displays. I wouldn't be surprised if Tanner had 10,000 logos instead of
5,000 logos; but they're 99.9% little 3 man shops you've never heard of.
Tanner doesn't really play in under 32nm analog migration.
Empyrean is based in mainland China and sells primarily to mainland Chinese
customers because the U.S. Government doesn't let CDNS nor SNPS sell cutting
edge EDA into mainland China. It's difficult to get solid details on Empyrean.
Unknown if they do any analog migration at all.
One Cadence Virtuoso analog migration side gig of the past 3 years has been moving
off-shore TSMC 28nm analog designs over to on-shore GlobalFoundries 22nm fabs or
Intel 16nm fabs -- primarily because of the CHIPS ACT for aerospace/military/etc.
Synopsys Custom Compiler has also been vying for that same CHIPS ACT 28nm to
22nm/16nm business for analog migration over the past 3 years -- but with
limited (under 15 chips, maybe?) success compared to CDNS Virtuoso.
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SHANKAR'S TIPPING POINT: Rather than squabble over a dwindling 28nm to 22nm/16nm analog
migration battle (because it's winding down), from what I can see Shankar is going
after that one niche that Beckley's Virtuoso Studio is still uncertain on.
That is, Shankar's going after the 10nm-7nm-5nm-3nm-2nm-1nm analog migration niche.
Right now, me being an outside observer, I gotta say that Beckley's Virtuoso Studio has
the lead with 8 out of the Top 20 Big Boy logos using it for analog migration.
For Shankar to have a chance, he's gotta get the Big Boy (Big $$$) logos to start
seriously using his Custom Compiler and/or ASO.ai tools -- or he's screwed.
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