The Wiretap Intercept No. 111018
opinions and skeptical speculations too small to fit into an Industry Gadfly column
Subject: TSMC Chairman issues an "odd" warning about 2012 world economy

According to the Taiwan Economic News, Morris Chang, the Chairman of TSMC
said at a local awards ceremony:

        "No swallow will be in sight throughout next year."

             - Morris Chang, Chairman of TSMC, (10/13/11)

Which is apparently his unique "folksy" way of giving business forecasts
based on the arrival of swallows heralding when Spring comes to Taiwan.

                 

(In other words this is Chang saying: "Hey, guys, Spring ain't coming this
year; it's going to stay Winter.  This upcoming 2012 world economy is going
to be REALLY REALLY BAD!")  The Taipai Times confirmed with:

  "Speaking at an awards ceremony late on Wednesday, Chang said US
   economy would not recover until 2013 and that Europe was facing
   a far more serious debt problem than previously believed."

Chang hinted at this in August when Reuters reported:

  "TSMC chairman Morris Chang revised down his forecast on the growth
   of semiconductor industry (excluding memory) to 4% from 7% in the
   beginning of this year, and the foundry industry to 7% from 15%."

So it was no surprise in October when TSMC issued a statement that "on
a consolidated basis, net sales for September 2011 were approximately
NT$ 33.41 billion, a decrease of 11.3 percent over August 2011 and a
decrease of 11.2 percent over September 2010."
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