( SNUG 10 Item 17 ) --------------------------------------------- [03/26/10]
Subject: How 39 Synopsys RIVALS would rate SNPS stock
IT'S ALL ABOUT GROWTH: Whether it's a Buy, Sell, or a Hold rating, there's
a lot of concern from the Synopsys rivals about the whole EDA industry not
growing overall.
Poof! A genie magically turns you into a famous CNBC Wall Street
stock analyst. A calls comes into your TV show asking you to rate
Synopsys (NASDAQ: SNPS) stock. Knowing what you know (you choose):
1- Give SNPS shares a "Strong Buy" rating
: 0%
2- Give SNPS shares a "Moderate Buy" rating
: ######################################### 41%
3- Give SNPS shares a "Hold" rating
: ########################### 27%
4- Give SNPS shares a "Moderate Sell" rating
: ################################ 32%
5- Give SNPS shares a "Strong Sell" rating
: 0%
What's the reasoning behind the rating you give for SNPS shares?
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
HOLD. The EDA industry is not showing growth yet, and Synopsys
financials are not good enough for a higher rating. HOLD is the
lowest possible rating a stock analyst can give a company without
being fired (like eBay sellers all being rated four or higher).
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
I would give them a Hold because they have a non-compelling growth
strategy. They have their biggest competitors imploding and they can
take minimal advantage of it. Their growth is tied to EDA growth which
does not look promising
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Moderate Buy with a gun to my head.
Synopsys should be dominating sales and reaping the benefits in the form
of their share price. In the last 6 months the stock is up from 16 to 22.
But deep discounting continues to plague the industry (Cadence's 90%
discounts and "throw it in for free" attitude doesn't help) and EDA
doesn't really grow. Recent SNPS acquisitions show that the management
believes that organic growth isn't going to get it done.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
I'd rate Synopsys a Moderate Sell. With their subscription business
model, they're going to be fighting the downdraft of the recession in
their earnings for the next three years. And where is growth going to
come from?
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell"
We are having one of the biggest bull runs in the history of the market
and SNPS has barely moved compared to other industries. The growth
isn't there and that's what drives stock prices. Lot's of better places
to put your money.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy" - stable company with strong home ground with some scope
to grow into competitor's areas. Would be Strong Buy if they showed
some way to grow the sector i.e. not just fight over the pie, but grow
the pie - not seen that strong leadership recently.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Hold. Keep'em if you have'em, and get ready to dump once the
economy kicks in gear - EDA is no place to make investment money.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Moderate Buy for the following reasons:
Stock hit hard during the worst of the downturn but making a comeback.
At $22.00+ probably good buy... but...
Margins have declined recently... but...
Predicting a profit of $1.01 to $1.20 per share
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Hold.
There's value in being king, but it's only the King of Poop Mountain.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
I'm not going to weigh in as a stock picker. I'm big on mutual
funds and clear-eyed asset allocation. Still, like everyone except
that guy on 60 minutes on Sunday, I've got less money now that I
did a couple of years ago.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy". Good long term prospects for steady, slow growth
with excellent cash flow and earnings. Clear focus on profitability
(at the expense of growth, if necessary). Likely to gain share vs
Cadence over the long term.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
I would probably rate SNPS & MENT a Moderate Buy. Semi seems to be
on the rebound, and CDNS/LAVA seem to still be struggling. Should
mean reasonably good things, though it's hard to expect any serious
rapid growth in a historically flat EDA market.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Give SNPS shares a "Moderate Sell" rating. Same level as in 2004.
Relatively high, sell, wait for crash, buy, hold, sell etc.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Moderate Buy. Even though they are the leader and have the best chance
of continued success, no EDA company deserves a Strong Buy.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell" Things are about as good as they get at SNPS right now.
CDN can only get better, and unless Aart changes some things soon, things
will start to deteriorate.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
As an employee at Cadence, I am getting stocks at a wonderful price. It
has a lot more potential than Synopsys shares.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Synopsys is a strong company. Unfortunately, even at the strongest point
where they have successfully put a lot of pressure on Cadence and Magma,
SNPS stock is going no where. It is not going down either. So, in terms
of rating on SNPS -- Moderate Sell. Not that the company is going down,
just that there are a lot other alternative choices that can give higher
percentage increase compared to what SNPS can give.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
SNPS rating: "Hold"
While Synopsys enjoys the strongest position in the EDA industry, I do
not see them as quickly making significant gains in the market share or
significantly improving their financial performance. With the stability
in the current economic climate and at Cadence, movement in the market
share will be slow.
Also, the volume sales model very much restricts the profitability. I
am not a short term investor and I would not have bought SNPS in the
first place.
If I was gifted SNPS stock, I'd probably sell to re-invest elsewhere.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Sorry - I'm a classic German - no interest in share trade.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
SNPS stock has recovered in the last few months and it is expected that
the customers will increase their investments in EDA still in 2010 and
2011 after a shocking 2009.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Moderate Buy
ESL strategic investment.
Predictible revenues and guidance.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Hold. Foresee no big gains, no big losses. Wait and see. Revenue
recognition model has provided significant stability in difficult economy
relative to peers, but there have been big reductions in footprint with
key customers in past 12 months which puts pressure on future earnings.
Expect this to start showing up over next 12 months as existing contracts
wind down without meaningful or sizeable replacements. To what extent it
shows up is the question. Hence the hold rating.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Hold. Even though Synopsys is best positioned of the major EDA players,
the EDA industry in general is contracting significantly. Eventually,
the only companies remaining will be Synopsys, probably one other major
EDA player, and the "lifestyle" companies (i.e. profitable ones).
The venture-capital backed "growth" companies (i.e. profitability is
perpetually 2 years out) will all eventually flame out, with no chance
of ever going public.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
I would say Moderate Buy. For the short term, I think their business
will benefit from the rest of the industry's weakness. For the long
term, SNPS will be held back by the industry business model.
- [ An Anon non-SNPS EDA Employee ]
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