( SNUG 10 Item 4 ) ---------------------------------------------- [04/22/10]
Subject: How 238 Synopsys users would rate SNPS stock
BIG FISH, LITTLE POND: While the SNPS competitors tended to rate SNPS as a
"Hold" stock (See SNUG10 #17), SNPS customers were much more bullish and
rated SNPS as a "Moderate Buy". The users were concerned about the EDA
competition, a general lack of growth in EDA, and a maturing semiconductor
industry -- but most were more impressed with Synopsys, Inc. being the
strong #1 leader in it's space.
Poof! A genie magically turns you into a famous CNBC Wall Street
stock analyst. A calls comes into your TV show asking you to rate
Synopsys (NASDAQ: SNPS) stock. Knowing what you know (you choose):
1- Give SNPS shares a "Strong Buy" rating
: ### 3%
2- Give SNPS shares a "Moderate Buy" rating
: ########################################### 43%
3- Give SNPS shares a "Hold" rating
: ################################### 35%
4- Give SNPS shares a "Moderate Sell" rating
: ################## 18%
5- Give SNPS shares a "Strong Sell" rating
: # 1%
What's the reasoning behind the rating you give for SNPS shares?
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell"
I see Primetime and DC being (finally) seriously challenged. If SNPS
loses the edge there, their licensing will suffer. They brought this
on themselves with their crappy support.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell"
Synopsys core is and has always been logic synthesis, at deep submicron
logic synthesis is inseparable from P&R. There are a lot of P&R vendors
and it is just a matter of time before their RTL mapping become good
enough to obsolete DC.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
They are doing fairly well over long periods, currently there is no
stronger competitor in RTL2GDS field. But one might appear one day.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
Semiconductor profits are rising and they have a 3D roadmap which
we see as the key growth area.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
Nothing exciting in the pipeline IMHO.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
overall design starts slowing, no clear growth path.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell"
This is simply not a growth industry.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
Clearly it survived the dot com bust and the great recession. But how
profitable will it be going forward? The EDA industry is aging.
Semiconductor companies are shrinking. Wouldn't it be more likely to
strike gold with the young darling startups in bio tech, green tech,
social networking, and cloud computing?
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
They have not really done anything revolutionary to show growth.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell"
All of EDA is in a bind. Because of the NRE costs and the ability to
integrate more and more functionality into a single do-all chip, the
number of ASIC starts is decreasing and will continue to do so until
there is a fundamental shift in the industry.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
Synopsys will grow by taking market share. As they become a monopoly
they will be able to raise prices. However, the semiconductor industry
is maturing and there will be fewer customers in the future.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
Synopsys has a good portfolio, but when ASIC starts are down or so
expensive many can't afford them, the outlook for ASIC tools doesn't
seem as good as it could be.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
Generally I think EDA is not a good investment as somehow all EDA
companies are not able to earn the profit they could.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
Weak tools market for a while.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
Not much of a market guru either. I like the SNPS products I use, and I
know ARM uses a bunch of them, so on that basis I'd say buy, but on the
other hand I keep reading that the EDA market overall is imploding, so
maybe the whole sector is one to avoid. I guess I'd say moderate buy.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Strong Buy"
Strong in all business fields; earliest entry into IP field and with
that also into SL area. Nobody has an option to "ignore" these
products/solutions -> continuous growing of revenue expected
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
EDA business isn't growing all that much.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
I think SNPS is good company that's run well, but the EDA industry as a
whole is not going to give huge returns in the market.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell"
They have their strongholds but I see a lot of competition as well as
weaknesses. Plus, a lot of place & route business has moved to
India/China and pricing power over there is not quite the same.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
Company doing well relative to peers but customers are limited in number
and financial capacity. Cost of doing chip design and wafer manufacturing
going up faster than cost of developing and supporting software tools.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
Despite the problems with individual tools, Synopsys is still the
biggest, most consistently strong game in town. Over the years,
they seem to have branched out successfully in many areas
(soft IP, hard IP, backend tools, etc.).
But not a "Strong Buy" because EDA is not a big market.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell"
While I've never been able to predict the stock market, I see
Synopsys as needing to work smarter & harder to compete with Cadence,
Mentor & others. Competitors are replacing parts of their older tools
and they need to move faster to fix problems with their newer tools in
order to keep users.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
Synopsys are mediocre in terms of products and support, but very good
at business. They will never make an effort unless they see the $$$
at the end of the day (e.g. they send their best people to support
Intel). Good for NASDAQ but very unpleasant for smaller users.
In any case, I don't trust engineers giving me stock recommendations.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
They have sufficient competition from Cadence.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell"
The entire semiconductor space is growing very slowly (as measured
in dollars, not transistors), and the design sector is growing even
more slowly than production. You do not want to be in the space
of selling expensive capital tools to a slow-grow industry.
FPGAs are gaining on ASICs; Free tools are gaining on SNPS. It's an
unattractive stock in an unattractive sector of a semi-attractive
industry. Sorry about that, Aart...
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
SNPS is doing better because other competitors are doing much worse.
It may not continue to do better longer term.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
They were in the doldrums in verification 3-4 years ago, and now they
are coming back. Cadence is leveling out, but not in a position to
go after them.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
Weak competitors.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
Synopsys foray into emulation and FPGAs seems like a good move.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
While I see Synopsys as the EDA market leader, the tech sector seems
to flip-flop every month as to future expected earnings.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
Just my guts. They're doing quite well since a long time, or did I
miss something? Actually I didn't check their stocks since a long time.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Strong Sell"
Very bad commercial strategy
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
They have a good market share, and could have a lot more if they invested
in themselves.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
Synopsys is good but they are overcharging.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell"
The market has contracted to a small nuumber of customers. C modeling
and and shift to embedded computing means more homemade or GNU tools.
I don't see a significant technological change that will alter this
in the mid-future (3 yrs).
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
Just because of the FPGA synthesis marketplace.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Hold"
Don't see the EDA market taking off enough to warrant more value,
regardless of the company.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
SNPS seems able to deliver solutions that do eventually do all the jobs
we need despite all the aggravation getting there. Cadence is way too
expensive and Mentor are an also ran.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
SNPS are a well managed company - they keep (just) ahead of the pack
technically and will continue to be the biggest EDA company.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell"
I don't see the rational and ROI behind CWR/Vast acquisition. Where is
the ESL business? At the moment this is a lot of $ out.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Sell"
I don't think they listen to what their customers want/need.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
SNPS is so share-holders-value oriented that you'll make money with
their shares even days before they'd go broke. And they came through
the crisis quite well, I have to say: Customers are consolidating and
they're consolidating on SNPS. Aart will announce the latest numbers
in October/November 2010 after SNPS' Q4. These will look teriffic
(or will at least be painted in bright colors), this year. Stocks
will skyrocket at least for a short period, then, and you can make a
fortune! 100% sure!
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
They have done a good job relative to the industry. That said,
I also like Mentor's positioning for the future.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
They preserve the leading position in EDA and most of their tools
and support are of good quality, so I would expect them to continue
on this path but with more limited growth.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
Customers are going to spend money on tools, might as well choose
somebody who is going to be around. Disclaimer, I am a shareholder.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
Only guy in the market space.
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
"Moderate Buy"
When you have a monopoly, how can you loose?
- [ An Anon EDA User ]
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