( ESNUG 513 Item 3 ) -------------------------------------------- [11/01/12]
Subject: News & Rumors on Apple, TSMC, AMD, FormalPro, Virtuoso, Aldec, UMC
ITEM 3: Here's the latest news & rumors I've heard about EDA and fabs since
my prior post. Feel free to comment/correct/scold anything you see here!
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- In reaction to Synopsys acquiring SpringSoft (and its Laker full
custom layout tool), it's rumored that Cadence has split its
Virtuoso into two new segments: IC6.X and IC12.X -- the thinking
being that Virtuoso ADE 12.X will have twice the features that
6.X has. (Get it? 12.X is twice 6.X) The "new", pricier IC12.X
will have all sorts of sexy 20 nm features like colorization,
FinFET thingys, and double patterning; whereas the cheaper IC6.X
will remain the cheaper basic model.
(What doesn't make sense about this is ADE is already in three
flavors: -G, -XL, and- GXL. Does this mean there will now to be
six flavors of Virtuoso???)
The rationale is to give Cadence Sales more flexibility in levels
of ADE it offers designers to keep Synopsys full custom at bay.
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- I can't believe Cowen & Co. whacked Raj Seth last week! With 16
years at Cowen, Raj was involved in big name IPOs like Magma, ARM,
Verisity, Simplex, Numerical, Virage, Nassda and God Knows how many
M&A deals. He started in ASIC design at LSI, then MSEE from Cornell,
then MBA from Kellogg. Heck, he even got the WSJ "Best of Street"
Award in '02, '04, and '08. Cowen laying off Raj is about as crazy
stupid as when EE Times cut Richard Goering. It's really BAD NEWS
for EDA when those *few* who *really* know EDA's quirks and hidden
backstories are removed from positions of power. Ouch!
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- Taiwan Economic News leaked that Apple will use TSMC as its sole
supplier for 20 nm quad-core processors in new Apple products.
"Citigroup Global Markets fellow, J.T. Hsu, pointed out
that Apple began verifying TSMC's 20 nm process in August
this year and may begin risk production in November with
the process. Volume production is expected to start in
the Q4 of 2013." (CENS 10/12/12)
If this report is true, it's seriously bad news for Samsung, the
current supplier of Apple chips.
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- Like a weird scene out of MacBeth, a year after Altium moved its
headquarters from from Sydney, Australia, to Shanghai, China; the
company whacked its CEO and 1985 founder, Nick Martin! And this
was after Altium reported revenues up 14% to $55 million! (huh?)
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- Last week TSMC CEO Morris Chang announced he had a kickass Q3 with
record earnings. YAY! Downside is he reaffirmed his prediction that
4Q12 and 1Q13 will slump -- and he doesn't give numbers how bad.
The Taipei Times reported that Credit Suisse analyst Randy Abrams
had projected that TSMC's Q4 overall revenue would drop 10%:
"The third quarter [3Q12] is expected to be the peak of this
year, as TSMC CEO Morris Chang foresees a period of decline
amid customer's inventory correction. Chang told investors
in July that 'we will have a dip that will last two quarters'.
This quarter [4Q12], revenue is expected to slide to $4.32 B,
Abrams forecast, meaning a 10 percent quarterly contraction."
(TT 10/10/12)
Digitimes confirmed a Q4 10% revenue drop with an article titled:
"TSMC 4Q12 sales may fall at least 10%" (DT 10/16/12)
If true, mathematically it means that although TSMC 28 nm revenue
is growing, TSMC 500/350/250/180/130/110/65/45/40 nm revenue is
dropping even faster down. For example, last week TSMC said 28 nm
is 13% of revenue. With ALL Q4 revenue down 10%, then 500-to-40 nm
will be 77% of revenue; that's down 23%! That is, TSMC 28 nm's
gains heavily eat into older TSMC 500-to-40 nm sales. Not good.
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- In late August, SeekingAlpha columnist, Ashraf Eassa, posted "Is UMC
A Ripe Takeover Target?" which got picked up by the financial press.
Ashraf Eassa's disclosure at the end of his column: "I may initiate
a long position in UMC over the next 72 hours." Too funny! :)
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- Oct 18 - North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment
posted $952.9 M in orders worldwide in September with a book-to-bill
ratio of 0.81. That's $81 worth of orders were received for every
$100 of product billed for the month. (Less new orders coming in.)
The Japanese equivalent posted a book-to-bill of 0.65 for September.
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- SemiAccurate's Charlie Demerjian has been posting scathing commentary
on AMD's messed up recent layoffs. Some titles: "AMD is imploding
because management doesn't understand semiconductors" and "AMD's
layoffs target engineering" and "Board incompetence dooms company".
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- Gary Smith's Market Trends 2012 report is *finally* now out! A taste:
"Cadence regained their number two position in the market
although that battle isn't over yet. Mentor remains the
company with their eye on the future, where Cadence's future
direction is still uncertain."
Looks like he has 4 reports this year: ESL, IC CAD, RTL & below, PCB.
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- ARM finally "officially" announced its 64-bit processors Cortex-A53
and Cortex-A57 at its ARM TechCon conference. Yawn. The "news" that
ARM was working on 64-bit was about as big a secret in the chip design
world as was the "mystery" of who killed O.J. Simpson's ex-wife. The
two "new" 64-bit cores are scheduled to ship in 2014.
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- READER QUESTION:
"Any companies using Mentor FormalPro for production designs? We
might get it in a bundle. Can it replace Cadence Conformal?"
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- READER QUESTION:
"Are Tanner EDA and Aldec merging? They seem to be doing a lot
of joint advertising recently that they didn't normally do before.
Is either company in financial trouble?"
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And again, feel free to comment/correct/scold/question anything you see here
by just emailing me directly. And, yes, you'll be ANONYMOUS!
- John Cooley
DeepChip.com Holliston, MA
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