( ESNUG 484 Item 5 ) -------------------------------------------- [02/02/10]
Subject: Can we trust that TSMC's 40 nm yield issues are now truly fixed?
> 1.) What are your 2 or 3 biggest burning EDA/design/business/tech
> issues that you're facing over the next 3 months? (The more
> details you can give, the better.)
From: [ Inquiring Minds ]
Hi, John,
Please keep my name and company anon on this.
Our project is almost ready for tapeout but our VP is afraid of committing
to TSMC 40 nm because of their off-and-on again yield issues. To wit:
07/06/08 -- Rumors of first parts at 40 nm scheduled for late 2008,
then delayed to Jan 2009, then delayed to March 2009.
02/09/09 -- Charlie Demerjian reports TSMC 40 nm has leakage problems
and power saving at 40 nm will be "minimal to negative".
04/30/09 -- TSMC CEO Rick Tsai admits in a conference call to
analysts that "There have been difficulties with the
yields. 40 nm is a difficult technology to manufacture.
We understand the root of the problem."
06/11/09 -- Morris Chang takes back the TSMC CEO job from Rick Tsai.
06/12/09 -- Goldman Sachs downgrades TSMC from "buy" to "neutral".
07/01/09 -- FBR Capital Markets reports for 40 nm "we believe yields
are as low as 20 percent to 30 percent, which may explain
the recent management change."
07/31/09 -- DigiTimes reports "In response to TSMC's 40 nm yield issues,
Chang said rates have improved from 30% to 60%" at a July
investors conference. (i.e. the yield problem is fixed.)
10/07/09 -- UBS downgrades TSMC from "buy" to "neutral".
10/30/09 -- DigitTimes reports "TSMC said it has seen yield rates for
its 40 nm node drop to 40% due to chamber matching issues."
(i.e. the yield problem is back!) And "CEO Morris Chang
pledged the issue will be solved within the quarter."
11/10/09 -- Nvidia confirms in the conference call that they were supply
constrained due to TSMC low yield issues.
01/13/10 -- DigitTimes reports "TSMC has been struggling to increase
yields on 40nm to over 70%, according to industry sources"
and Xilinx was moving to UMC to minimize risks.
01/20/10 -- DigiTimes reports that Mark Liu, senior VP at TSMC had stated
"that the chamber matching problems that had impacted yield
rates for the company's 40 nm node have been resolved" and
that 40 nm yield is "about the same level as its 65 nm node."
We don't know if we should double order TSMC and pray this is mostly true or
to focus our efforts on making UMC or Global as our primary. Suggestions?
- [ Inquiring Minds ]
P.S. My boss also want to know if any of your ATI or Nvidia ESNUG readers
would mind talking to us privately about TSMC 40 nm? He doesn't think
TSMC employees can speak truthfully about yield. It's too political.
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
From: [ Doubting Thomas ]
Hey, John,
What did you think of TSMC's second time announcing that they solved their
40 nm yield problem? Wasn't it odd that they did it during through a VP
of Operations during the dedication of a new building? With something this
big, you'd think Morris himself would have done it, no?
- [ Doubting Thomas ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
From: [ Elvis Has Left The Building ]
Hi, John,
Did you buy TSMC's story of their 40 nm problems are all nicey nicey fixed?
- [ Elvis Has Left The Building ]
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
From: [ Dave's Not Here ]
Re: TSMC 40 nm
Haven't we heard this one before already?
- [ Dave's Not Here ]
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