( ESNUG 464 Item 2 ) -------------------------------------------- [03/30/07]
Subject: Cooley predicted Synopsys-Magma lawsuit outcome almost exactly!
> So, on the outside looking in and as an experienced Texas holdem player,
> my instincts tell me that both sides think this case is going to end in
> some sort of stalemate they'll both like and dislike. My gut says that
> for the 4 patents in dispute, it is probably going to break down to
> Synopsys will win some and Magma will win some -- and the judge will
> make them cross license them to each other. Or that Magma might lose but
> only be forced to pay some manageable penalty; say around $20 million
> more or less.
>
> - from http://www.deepchip.com/wiretap/070301.html
From: John Cooley <jcooley=user domain=zeroskew not palm>
Howdy, ESNUGers,
Without any dillydallying, here's the poop from their joint press release:
"Synopsys and Magma today announced the companies have agreed to settle
all pending litigation between them. As part of the settlement,
- Synopsys and Magma agree to release all claims in both California
and Delaware and to cross license the patents at issue in these
jurisdictions as well as any related applications;
- Both companies agree not to initiate future patent litigation
against each other for 2 years provided certain terms are met;
- Magma agrees to make a payment to Synopsys of $12.5 million toward
the settlement of this dispute; and,
- All other terms of the settlement are confidential."
I'm loving it! Loving it! Loving it! This damn lawsuit is over and I gets
full bragging rights of having *predicted* in writing the cross licensing
and that Magma was going to pay "say around $20 million more or less"!!!
Holy moley! As I said before in that very same column, if this lawsuit is
a tie or a draw, then "my kudos go to Rajeev. Because as long as Magma
is still in business, Rajeev wins." Synopsys knows this. So my gut says
that something really ugly must have been happening on the Synopsys side
of this case for Synopsys to have agreed to any settlement. They had waaaay
too much emotionally invested in trying to personally take Rajeev down to
ever give Magma a break willingly. Wow. It had to be something ungood.
What will be interesting is that San Jose SNUG is starting next Monday. It
always begins with Aart giving his annual keynote. Will Aart mention this
obvious elephant-in-the-living-room or not? Or will Aart make people wait
for someone to bring it up during the audience Q&A after his speech?
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
I'm not a financial analyst, nor do I play one on TV, but my next amazing
prediction is that on Friday, March 30th, LAVA shares will go up ballpark
in the ~20 percent range, while SNPS shares will go neither up nor down.
For a $170 million in annual revenue company, no more monster legal fees is
a really big thing. Plus no threat of being killed off is really big, too!
For a $1.14 billion annual revenue company, monster legal fees are trivial.
And this was a kill Magma move; not a kill Synopsys move (i.e. losing, SNPS
would only be out legal fees -- and it's getting $12.5 million anyway.)
Again, as I said earlier, I'm not a financial analyst. I could be uber
mondo macho wrong here. This is just my poker instincts talking.
- John Cooley
ESNUG/DeepChip.com Holliston, MA
P.S. Merry early Christmas, Wally! Get your shopping checkbook ready... :)
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
P.P.S. Now that it's 4:00 PM and the stock markets have closed, for the
record LAVA went up 17%, while SNPS was "up" a flat 0.5% -- again
almost exactly as I predicted. EDA Psychic Hotline here I come!
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